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Polymarket World Cup Group Favorites Repricing

扫描世界杯2026夺冠预测市场，从市场问题文本提取队伍名，以当前价格加组内阶段涨幅估算合理价，在开赛前满足边际与风控条件时买入 YES，并可在淘汰赛开始时卖出。默认 dry-run，支持 sim、Polymarket、Kalshi 场地配置。

alyna123t
alyna123t
热度 22.86
最近更新 2026-06-09 14:59:05
分类：自动化依赖：代码执行 / 读写文件 / 第三方 API应用场景：财务 / 市场分析 / 自动化脚本

安装技能

复制下面的话术发给你的 Agent，它会通过 secure-skills 检索并安装该技能。

执行命令安装此 skill： npx secure-skills-cli add polymarket-world-cup-group-favorites-repricing-clean
Metadata
name
polymarket-world-cup-group-favorites-repricing-clean
description
Buy pre-tournament World Cup outright favorites and capture group-stage repricing before knockout phase.
metadata
{"author":"Alyna + Hermes","version":"0.1.0","displayName":"Polymarket World Cup Group Favorites Repricing","difficulty":"beginner","simmer":{"links":["https://x.com/airdrops_io/status/2061459289059754392"]}}

Polymarket World Cup Group Favorites Repricing

Strategy source: https://x.com/airdrops_io/status/2061459289059754392

Thesis

Before kickoff, group-stage favorites can be underpriced to win the 2026 World Cup. As the group stage starts and favorites top groups, outright prices can reprice upward. This skill buys early and (optionally) exits around knockout start to realize repricing.

What it does

  • scans active World Cup 2026 outright-winner markets
  • extracts team names from market question text
  • estimates fair value as: fair_yes = current_yes + team_group_stage_boost
  • enters only when fair_yes - current_yes >= min_edge
  • applies spread/slippage/safeguard/cooldown/daily-budget checks
  • supports --venue (sim, polymarket, kalshi)
  • optional knockout exit workflow (manage_exits=true)

Defaults

  • dry-run by default
  • max position: $8
  • daily budget: $30
  • max trades/run: 3
  • entry window closes at tournament start (2026-06-11 default)
  • optional exit trigger at knockout start (2026-06-27 default)

Run

cd skills/polymarket-world-cup-group-favorites-repricing
python world_cup_group_favorites_repricing.py --config
python world_cup_group_favorites_repricing.py --venue sim
python world_cup_group_favorites_repricing.py --venue sim --live
python world_cup_group_favorites_repricing.py --venue sim --positions

Tune

python world_cup_group_favorites_repricing.py --set min_edge=0.04
python world_cup_group_favorites_repricing.py --set max_position_usd=10
python world_cup_group_favorites_repricing.py --set daily_budget_usd=50
python world_cup_group_favorites_repricing.py --set tournament_start_utc=2026-06-11T00:00:00Z
python world_cup_group_favorites_repricing.py --set knockout_start_utc=2026-06-27T00:00:00Z

Deterministic spec (Skill Builder style)

Signal

  • Team is a World Cup outright favorite candidate
  • Team price lies in candidate range (min_yes_price..max_yes_price)
  • Repricing edge from group-stage boost exceeds min_edge

Entry logic

  • Pre-tournament only (now < tournament_start_utc)
  • Buy YES when edge + quality gates pass

Exit logic

  • Optional: when now >= knockout_start_utc, sell YES shares on matching outright markets

Market selection

  • Active markets with World Cup 2026 outright winner intent

Position sizing

  • fixed max_position_usd per market

Risk controls

  • max_spread, max_slippage_pct
  • cooldown_hours
  • max_trades_per_run
  • daily_budget_usd
  • optional safeguards (--no-safeguards disables)