Polymarket World Cup Delta Pairs

Strategy source: https://x.com/zETHerka/status/2061162222156460540

Thesis

This skill links two related market types for the same team:

• group-stage advancement
• outright World Cup winner

It enters a pair:

• buy NO on "team to advance"
• buy YES on "team to win World Cup"

The goal is to monetize structural mispricing and event-driven repricing between connected markets.

What it does

• scans active 2026 World Cup advance + winner markets
• pairs markets by normalized team name
• computes pair economics:
  • pair_cost = (1 - advance_yes) + winner_yes
  • settle edge if team fails to advance: 1 - pair_cost
  • reprice edge if team advances: (winner_yes + boost) - pair_cost
• enters only when both edge thresholds pass
• applies spread/slippage safeguards + cooldown + daily budget
• supports --venue (sim, polymarket, kalshi)

Defaults

• dry-run by default
• per leg: $4 (pair spend = $8)
• daily budget: $30
• max pairs/run: 2
• winner repricing boost: +0.10
• team universe seeded with 15 national teams (editable via team_universe)

Run

cd skills/polymarket-world-cup-delta-pairs
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --config
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --venue sim
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --venue sim --live
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --venue sim --positions

Tune

python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set per_leg_usd=5
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set winner_reprice_boost=0.12
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set min_settle_edge=0.03
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set min_cross_gap=0.25
python world_cup_delta_pairs.py --set min_reprice_edge=-0.30

Deterministic spec (Skill Builder style)

Signal

• Team appears in both advance + winner market sets
• Pair has positive floor in fail-advance and advance+reprice scenarios

Entry logic

• Buy NO on advance leg and YES on winner leg for same team
• Require both settle_edge and reprice_edge thresholds

Exit logic

• v0.1 focuses on disciplined pair entry
• explicit exit rules can be added in future revision

Market selection

• Active 2026 FIFA World Cup team-advance and outright-winner markets

Position sizing

• fixed per_leg_usd on each leg

Risk controls

• max_spread, max_slippage_pct
• cooldown_hours
• max_pairs_per_run
• daily_budget_usd
• optional safeguards (--no-safeguards disables)