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Polymarket Twitter Bin Decay Trader

核心功能为跟踪Polymarket上Twitter帖子计数区间市场的时间进度，计算区间是否仍具备结算可能性，识别被错价的“死区间”并按阈值交易。典型场景是名人帖数区间市场定价滞后时捕捉套利机会。需SIMMER_API_KEY及simmer-sdk，默认纸盘交易，加--live触发实盘，可配置仓位、阈值等风控参数，还支持自定义信号逻辑。

diagnostikon
diagnostikon
热度 50.32
最近更新 2026-05-11 17:39:30
分类：自动化依赖：代码执行 / 第三方 API应用场景：数据处理 / 自动化脚本 / 财务 / 市场分析

安装技能

复制下面的话术发给你的 Agent，它会通过 secure-skills 检索并安装该技能。

执行命令安装此 skill： npx secure-skills-cli add polymarket-twitter-bin-decay-trader
Metadata
name
polymarket-twitter-bin-decay-trader
description
Trades post-count bin markets by tracking elapsed time to identify mathematically dead bins that still hold residual probability. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. Use when you want to exploit time-decay mispricing in Twitter post-count markets where bins can no longer resolve YES.
metadata
{"author":"Diagnostikon","owner":"Diagnostikon","version":"1.0.0","displayName":"Twitter Bin Decay Trader","difficulty":"advanced","homepage":"https://simmer.markets/skills","repository":"https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk","requires_env":"SIMMER_API_KEY","requires_pip":"simmer-sdk","default_mode":"paper","live_flag":"--live"}

Twitter Bin Decay Trader

This is a template.
The default signal estimates posts-so-far from elapsed time and daily rate — remix it with real-time post counting via Twitter API, Social Blade scrapers, or Polymarket order flow analysis.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

As a posting period progresses, bins become mathematically eliminable. If Elon has estimated ~130 tweets after 2 of 3 days, the "40-64" bin is dead — but it might still trade at 5-10% because the market is slow to update.

This skill tracks the elapsed fraction of each market's period and computes which bins are still viable, which are dead, and which are on-trajectory.

Signal Logic

Viability Computation

  1. Parse start/end dates from market question
  2. Compute elapsed_fraction = (now - start) / (end - start)
  3. Estimate posts_so_far = elapsed_fraction * daily_rate * period_days
  4. Calculate reachable range:
    • max_total = posts_so_far + max_daily_rate * remaining_days
    • min_total = posts_so_far + 0.3 * daily_rate * remaining_days
  5. If bin_lower > max_total → bin is dead (unreachable)
  6. If bin_upper < min_total → bin is dead (already surpassed)

Max Daily Rates (Historical Extremes)

Person Avg Daily Max Daily Notes
Elon Musk 65 120 Thread storms can 2x rate
Donald Trump 23 50 Rally days spike
Vitalik 8 20 Conference days
CZ 12 30 Exchange drama days

Trading Dead Bins

  • Dead bin priced >62% → strong NO signal (sell the corpse)
  • Viable bin priced <38% and on-trajectory → YES signal (buy the survivor)
  • Conviction scales with both threshold distance AND viability confidence

Remix Ideas

  • Real-time post counting: Replace estimation with actual count from Twitter API
  • Velocity tracking: Track rate changes within the period (accelerating vs decelerating)
  • Multi-bin portfolio: Short dead bins and long viable bins simultaneously for hedge

Risk Parameters

Parameter Default Notes
Max position size $40 USDC Per market
Min market volume $1,000 Standard filter
Max bid-ask spread 10% Default threshold
Min days to resolution 0 Post-count markets are short-lived
Max open positions 8 Diversify across bins

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-twitter-bin-decay-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null — the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario Mode Financial risk
python trader.py Paper (sim) None
Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None
python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable Required Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable Default Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 40 Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 1000 Min market volume filter (USD)
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.10 Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%)
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 0 Min days until market resolves
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 8 Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.