Polymarket Twitter Sentiment Spike Trader

这是一个基于 Simmer SDK 的预测市场交易模板：扫描账户内其他 Polymarket 市场的极端概率作为危机信号，按人物亲缘关系计算发帖频率提升倍数，据此对发帖计数类市场下单。默认模拟交易，仅在显式传入 --live 时进行真实 USDC 交易，并配有仓位、成交量、点差等风控参数。

diagnostikon

热度 48.61

最近更新 2026-05-11 17:39:34

分类：自动化依赖：代码执行 / 第三方 API应用场景：自动化脚本 / 财务 / 市场分析

安装技能

复制下面的话术发给你的 Agent，它会通过 secure-skills 检索并安装该技能。

执行命令安装此 skill： npx secure-skills-cli add polymarket-twitter-sentiment-spike-trader

Metadata

name: polymarket-twitter-sentiment-spike-trader
description: Detects crisis and news spikes across other Polymarket markets and adjusts expected posting rates upward for post-count bins. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. Use when you want to exploit the correlation between global events and public figure posting frequency.
metadata: {"author":"Diagnostikon","owner":"Diagnostikon","version":"1.0.0","displayName":"Twitter Sentiment Spike Trader","difficulty":"advanced","homepage":"https://simmer.markets/skills","repository":"https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk","requires_env":"SIMMER_API_KEY","requires_pip":"simmer-sdk","default_mode":"paper","live_flag":"--live"}

Twitter Sentiment Spike Trader

This is a template.
The default signal uses other Polymarket markets as a crisis barometer — remix it with VIX/fear indices, Google Trends velocity, news API sentiment, or social listening platforms.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

When a geopolitical crisis erupts, politicians tweet 50% more. When crypto crashes, Elon and CZ spike their posting rates. Post-count bin markets are priced on baseline cadence — they don't factor in real-time news intensity.

This skill uses OTHER Polymarket markets as a crisis detector. Extreme probabilities on war/crypto/health markets = crisis mode = higher posting rates expected.

Signal Logic

Crisis Detection

Scan all non-posting markets on the account
Identify markets at extreme probabilities (>85% or <15%) with crisis-adjacent keywords
Match crisis topics to person affinity (Trump reacts to war, Elon to crypto)
Compute per-person crisis multiplier

Person Crisis Boosts

Person	Max Crisis Boost	Top Triggers
Trump	1.50x	War, sanctions, tariffs, impeachment
Elon	1.40x	BTC, tariffs, bans, AI
CZ	1.30x	BTC, Binance, SEC, hacks
Vitalik	1.25x	ETH, BTC, DeFi, regulation

Cross-Market Intelligence

The skill reads your entire Simmer portfolio as a sentiment layer. The more extreme markets you have imported, the better the crisis signal.

Remix Ideas

VIX correlation: Track VIX changes as a universal fear proxy
Google Trends velocity: Detect sudden search spikes on person-relevant topics
News API: Real-time headline sentiment scoring
Twitter API: Direct activity monitoring (mentions, replies, quote tweets)

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Max position size	$40 USDC	Per market
Min market volume	$1,000	Standard filter
Max bid-ask spread	10%	Default threshold
Min days to resolution	0	Post-count markets are short-lived
Max open positions	8	Diversify across events

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-twitter-sentiment-spike-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null — the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
`python trader.py`	Paper (sim)	None
Cron / automaton	Paper (sim)	None
`python trader.py --live`	Live (polymarket)	Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	Yes	Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call `--live`.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Variable	Default	Purpose
`SIMMER_MAX_POSITION`	`40`	Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
`SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME`	`1000`	Min market volume filter (USD)
`SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD`	`0.10`	Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%)
`SIMMER_MIN_DAYS`	`0`	Min days until market resolves
`SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS`	`8`	Max concurrent open positions
`SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD`	`0.38`	Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
`SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD`	`0.62`	Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
`SIMMER_MIN_TRADE`	`5`	Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.