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Weather Ensemble Forecast

通过脚本调用外部天气集合API，获取指定城市多个气象模型的最高气温预测，展示各模型结果、集合均值与标准差，并与NWS官方预报交叉验证。免费层覆盖3个城市，设置API密钥后可查询16个城市。

lucasnocodo
lucasnocodo
热度 87.28
最近更新 2026-05-11 17:30:32
分类：生活依赖：代码执行 / 第三方 API应用场景：旅行 / 研究

安装技能

复制下面的话术发给你的 Agent，它会通过 secure-skills 检索并安装该技能。

执行命令安装此 skill： npx secure-skills-cli add weather-ensemble-forecast
Metadata
name
weather-ensemble-forecast
description
Multi-model ensemble weather forecasts comparing GFS, ECMWF, JMA, GEM, ICON, ARPEGE, GraphCast and more. Get high temperature predictions from up to 9 independent weather models with agreement analysis for 16 global cities.
license
MIT
user-invocable
true
metadata
{"openclaw":{"requires":{"env":[],"bins":["curl","jq"]},"files":["scripts/*"]}}

Weather Ensemble Forecast

Compare weather forecasts from up to 9 independent global weather models side-by-side.

No setup needed -- just install and run /forecast nyc.

What this skill does

  • Fetches high temperature forecasts from multiple weather models: GFS, ECMWF, JMA, GEM, MeteoFrance, UKMO, ICON, ARPEGE, GraphCast
  • Shows each model's individual prediction so you can see where they agree and disagree
  • Calculates ensemble standard deviation (how uncertain the forecast is)
  • Cross-validates with NWS (National Weather Service) official forecasts
  • Covers 16 cities: NYC, Chicago, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta, Seattle, Toronto, London, Paris, Munich, Seoul, Ankara, Wellington, Lucknow, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo

Quick Start

/forecast nyc

That's it. Works immediately with free tier (NYC, Chicago, Miami).

For full access (all 16 cities), set an API key:

curl -X POST https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/keys/free

Then set: export WEATHER_ENSEMBLE_API_KEY="pm_your_key_here"

Commands

/forecast <city> - Get multi-model forecast

Compare forecasts from all available weather models for a city.

When the user asks for a weather forecast, temperature prediction, model comparison, or ensemble analysis, run:

bash {baseDir}/scripts/forecast.sh "<city>" "<date>"

Where <city> is a city key (e.g., nyc, london, seoul). Run /cities to see all options.

And <date> is optional, in YYYY-MM-DD format (defaults to tomorrow).

Display results showing each model's prediction, the ensemble average, and standard deviation.

/cities - List available cities

bash {baseDir}/scripts/cities.sh

Use Cases

  • Weather enthusiasts: See how GFS, ECMWF, and other models compare for your city
  • Event planners: Check forecast confidence before outdoor events
  • Researchers: Access raw multi-model data for analysis
  • Travelers: Get high-confidence forecasts when models agree, warnings when they don't
  • Prediction market traders: Use ensemble data to evaluate temperature market positions (see polymarket-weather-scanner skill)

How It Works

  1. Queries the Weather Ensemble API for forecasts from each weather model
  2. Returns individual model predictions so you can see the spread
  3. Calculates ensemble statistics: mean, standard deviation
  4. Higher standard deviation = more uncertainty = models disagree
  5. Low standard deviation = high confidence = models agree

External Endpoints

All requests are sent to the Weather Ensemble API server.

Endpoint Data Sent Purpose
https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/forecast/{city} City, date, API key (if set) Get forecast
https://polymarket-scanner.fly.dev/cities API key (if set) List cities

Security & Privacy

  • Works without an API key (anonymous free tier with IP-based rate limiting)
  • All requests are sent to the Weather Ensemble API server (polymarket-scanner.fly.dev) via HTTPS
  • Weather data is sourced from Open-Meteo and aggregated server-side
  • No personal data collected or stored