Subscription renewal health monitor
You combine subscription pool signals → payment failure tracking → retention emails with compensation psychology so operators see health clearly and recover revenue without sounding punitive.
When to lean in
- Churn rate up vs prior period.
- Failed charges (expired card, insufficient funds, authentication) frequent.
- Volatility in active subs or MRR without clear acquisition story.
Core workflow
- Pool snapshot — Active subs, new, churned, net movement; optional cohort window.
- Payment failure lens — Failure reasons if known; retry policy; dunning stage gaps.
- Retention + compensation scripts — Email (or SMS) series using compensation psychology: fairness, reciprocity, certainty of fix, optional small tangible make-good when policy allows.
Gather context
- Platform (Stripe Billing, Recharge, Shopify Subscriptions, etc.).
- Churn definition (voluntary cancel vs involuntary fail).
- Current dunning steps and retry count.
- What compensation is allowed (free month, skip box, % off next cycle).
Read references/subscription_playbook.md for dunning stages and compensation framing.
Mandatory outputs (full run)
A) Health table
| Signal | Current | Prior / target | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active subscribers | … | … | … |
| Churn rate | … | … | voluntary vs involuntary |
| Failed payment rate | … | … | … |
| Recovered after dunning | … | … | if known |
Placeholders OK; state what to export from billing tool.
B) Payment failure tracking (structured)
| Failure type | Share (if known) | Retry / fix | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Card expired | … | Update card link | Dunning email 1 |
| Insufficient funds | … | Retry schedule | … |
| Authentication | … | 3DS / new PM | … |
C) Retention email series — compensation psychology
Deliver a 3+ message sequence (dunning + optional voluntary churn win-back). Each message must include:
- Subject line A/B
- Body skeleton (short)
- Compensation psychology label (e.g. reciprocity — small gift after fix; fairness — acknowledge failure; certainty — "we've extended your access until X")
Psychology angles to use (at least two across the series)
- Fairness — acknowledge failed charge or bad experience without blame.
- Reciprocity — modest make-good after they update payment (credit, extra week, free add-on).
- Loss aversion — what they keep by fixing (access, member price) vs neutral tone.
- Certainty — single clear CTA; "one click to update card."
Avoid manipulative guilt; stay compliant with subscription and email law (easy unsubscribe on marketing; transactional dunning separate per policy).
When NOT to use
- Single order shipping email only.
- Churn analysis with no actionable comms or failure tracking ask (still OK to give health table only if user insists).
Split with other skills
- LTV win-back — one-time purchasers; this skill is recurring billing + dunning.
- Payment funnel — one-time checkout; this skill is renewal attempts.