Prediction Fair Value Template

This skill scans active Simmer-indexed markets matching a search query, compares the current market price to your fair probability, and places a trade only when the gap is large enough to justify action.

This is a template. The default signal is a user-supplied fair probability plus a keyword market search. Remix it with your own model outputs, news signals, research pipeline, or external data. The skill handles discovery, sizing, context checks, redemption, and trade execution plumbing.

What It Does

On each run, the skill:

1. Calls Simmer briefing and auto-redeem.
2. Searches active markets using MARKET_QUERY.
3. Compares each market's current YES price to FAIR_PROBABILITY.
4. Buys YES when the market is under your fair value by at least MIN_EDGE.
5. Buys NO when the market is over your fair value by at least MIN_EDGE.
6. Sizes the position with simmer_sdk.sizing.size_position().
7. Checks market context before trading to avoid severe flip-flops, weak edge, or excessive slippage.
8. Defaults to dry-run unless you explicitly enable live trading.

Required Files

This skill follows Simmer's manual build pattern for ClawHub:

• SKILL.md
• clawhub.json
• trade_skill.py

Environment Variables

Credentials

• SIMMER_API_KEY (required): Simmer API key from your dashboard.
• WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY (optional): Only needed for external-wallet self-custody mode on supported venues.

Strategy Config

• MARKET_QUERY: Search term used to discover markets. Default: bitcoin
• FAIR_PROBABILITY: Your estimated YES probability from 0 to 1. Default: 0.60
• MIN_EDGE: Minimum pricing gap required to act. Default: 0.05
• MAX_MARKETS: Maximum number of markets to inspect per run. Default: 5
• MAX_SLIPPAGE_PCT: Skip trades if estimated slippage exceeds this threshold. Default: 0.15
• TRADING_VENUE: sim or polymarket. Default: sim
• SIMMER_ENABLE_LIVE: Set to true to allow live order placement in automations. Default: false

Safety Model

• Dry-run is the default.
• Every trade is tagged with source and skill_slug.
• Every trade includes public reasoning.
• Market context is checked before order placement.
• Sizing is based on bankroll and edge, not a hard-coded fixed stake.

Local Usage

Dry-run:

export SIMMER_API_KEY="sk_live_..."
python trade_skill.py

Live mode:

export SIMMER_API_KEY="sk_live_..."
python trade_skill.py --live

Custom thesis:

export MARKET_QUERY="fed rates"
export FAIR_PROBABILITY="0.72"
export MIN_EDGE="0.06"
export TRADING_VENUE="sim"
python trade_skill.py

Remix Ideas

• Replace FAIR_PROBABILITY with a model output.
• Use different fair probabilities by market category.
• Add external signals from a news API, a research pipeline, or your own classifier.
• Add stricter filters for time to resolution or liquidity.
• Change sizing thresholds to fit your risk tolerance.

Publishing

From inside this skill folder:

npx clawhub@latest publish . --slug prediction-fair-value-template --version 1.0.0

Always publish with an explicit --slug.