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prediction-markets-research

通过 Crawlora API 以只读方式拉取 Polymarket、Kalshi、Metaculus 的赔率、价格历史、订单簿、成交与社区预测聚合数据，返回规范化 JSON。需自行配置 API Key，不含交易下单功能。

crawlora-org
crawlora-org
热度 55.51
最近更新 2026-09-17 18:26:50
分类：搜索依赖：代码执行 / 第三方 API应用场景：研究 / 市场分析

安装技能

复制下面的话术发给你的 Agent，它会通过 secure-skills 检索并安装该技能。

执行命令安装此 skill： npx secure-skills-cli add prediction-markets-research
Metadata
name
prediction-markets-research
description
Pulls prediction-market odds, order books, and forecast questions from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus via the Crawlora API, returning clean JSON. Use when the user asks what the market thinks will happen, wants current odds/prices for an event, wants a market's price history or order book, or wants a forecasting community's aggregate prediction on a question.

Prediction markets research

Pull live and historical odds, order books, and forecast questions from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus as normalized JSON — no scraping market-maker sites or parsing raw order-book blobs.

When to use this skill

  • "What does the market think will happen with ?" / "current odds for …"
  • "Show me the order book / spread / price history for this market."
  • "What are the top trending prediction markets right now?"
  • "What's the community forecast (Metaculus) for ?"
  • Election, macro, sports, or crypto-outcome forecasting research.

Setup (one-time)

  • Get a free Crawlora API key (2,000 credits/mo, no card) at https://crawlora.net.
  • Set CRAWLORA_API_KEY in the environment before running the helper.
  • The helper reads CRAWLORA_API_KEY from the environment and sends requests to https://api.crawlora.net/api/v1. Missing/invalid key → 401.

How it works

  1. Polymarket — /polymarket/search or /polymarket/events to find an event; /polymarket/event/{slug} for detail (nested markets); /polymarket/market/{id} for one market; then token-level pricing via /polymarket/token/{token_id}/price|midpoint|orderbook|spread|price-history (or the batched POST /polymarket/tokens/prices etc. for up to 25 at once). /polymarket/leaderboard and /polymarket/dashboards/macro cover traders and macro events.
  2. Kalshi — /kalshi/events / /kalshi/markets to browse; /kalshi/event/{event_ticker} or /kalshi/market/{ticker} for detail; /kalshi/market/{ticker}/history for candlesticks, /kalshi/market/{ticker}/orderbook for depth, /kalshi/trades for recent fills. /kalshi/historical/* covers settled (closed) markets.
  3. Metaculus — /metaculus/questions to browse; /metaculus/question/{id} for detail; /metaculus/question/{id}/forecasts for the current community aggregate, /forecast-history for how it moved over time.

Full endpoint list, methods, and params: reference/endpoints.md.

Calling the API

# Polymarket:
scripts/crawlora.sh /polymarket/search q="fed rate cut" | jq '.'
scripts/crawlora.sh /polymarket/event/will-the-fed-cut-rates | jq '.'

# Kalshi:
scripts/crawlora.sh /kalshi/markets | jq '.data'
scripts/crawlora.sh /kalshi/market/INXD-24DEC31-T5000/history | jq '.'

# Metaculus:
scripts/crawlora.sh /metaculus/questions | jq '.data'
scripts/crawlora.sh /metaculus/question/12345/forecasts | jq '.'

Use scripts/crawlora.sh for all requests; it keeps the API key out of command-line arguments.

Endpoint reference

See reference/endpoints.md for every Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus endpoint this skill uses.

Examples

  • Cross-platform odds check: /polymarket/search and /kalshi/markets for the same real-world event, compare implied probabilities.
  • Market momentum: /kalshi/market/{ticker}/history or /polymarket/token/{token_id}/price-history plotted over time to see how sentiment shifted.
  • Forecast vs. market: /metaculus/question/{id}/forecasts (community aggregate) alongside the matching Polymarket/Kalshi market price.

Notes & limits

  • Credits / pay-on-success: billed only on 2xx; free tier 2,000 credits/mo. Key at https://crawlora.net.
  • Public, credential-free data only — no trading, no order placement; read-only market data. This is not financial advice.
  • Security: key lives in CRAWLORA_API_KEY only — never hardcode, query-param, or commit it.
  • Batch endpoints (/polymarket/tokens/*) accept up to 25 ids per call — chunk larger lists.