Polymarket Scout — Hourly Edge Detector

扫描 Polymarket 的 BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP 小时涨跌市场，获取实时赔率，按 Argus 策略计算策略概率与市场隐含概率之差，识别反共识机会，应用新鲜度过滤，并返回排序后的边际机会及凯利下注规模。

jamierossouw

热度 86.11

最近更新 2026-05-11 17:26:41

分类：数据依赖：第三方 API应用场景：财务 / 市场分析 / 推荐

安装技能

复制下面的话术发给你的 Agent，它会通过 secure-skills 检索并安装该技能。

执行命令安装此 skill： npx secure-skills-cli add polymarket-scout

Metadata

name: polymarket-scout
version: 1.0.0
description: Scan Polymarket hourly crypto markets (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP) for edge opportunities. Detects counter-consensus setups, freshness windows, and expected value using the Argus strategy. Use when you need Polymarket market scanning, edge detection, hourly binary market analysis, or prediction market signals.
author: JamieRossouw
tags: ["polymarket","prediction-markets","crypto","edge-detection","betting","defi"]

Polymarket Scout — Hourly Market Edge Detector

Scans Polymarket's hourly BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP up/down markets for tradeable edge using the Argus strategy.

What It Does

Fetches live Polymarket odds for hourly crypto markets via REST API
Computes edge = our_P(win) - market_implied_P(win)
Flags counter-consensus setups (TA says UP, market says 70%+ DOWN → positive EV)
Applies freshness guard: skips markets >92% consensus (L020)
Returns ranked edge opportunities with bet sizing (Kelly)

Usage

Use polymarket-scout to scan current hourly markets for edge

Use polymarket-scout to check BTC 10am ET edge

Use polymarket-scout to find best Polymarket bet right now

Edge Calculation

edge = our_P - market_P
where our_P = TA-calibrated probability per asset:
  BTC: reliability 0.75, min score ±3
  ETH: reliability 0.80, slight UP bias +0.05
  SOL: reliability 0.90, UP bias +0.05
  XRP: reliability 0.70, UP bias +0.08 (CLARITY catalyst)

Counter-Consensus Rule (L023)

When TA score ≥+1 AND market DOWN >80% AND ≥20 min remaining → counter-consensus UP has positive EV. Validated: 77.8% WR on fresh primary bets.

API Integration

Uses Polymarket CLOB REST API and Gamma API (no keys required).