360 Secure SkillHub
360 安全技能中心

Polymarket Multi Source Estimator

该 Skill 从预测市场获取行情，抓取 RSS 新闻、FRED、GDELT、体育赔率、民调、国会、FDA、天气、地震、Finnhub 及 Manifold/Kalshi 比价等 10 余个数据源构建上下文，交由 LLM 估算真实概率；当估算值与市价偏离超过阈值（默认 15%）时通过 Simmer 自动下单，默认干跑。

mibayy
mibayy
热度 54.84
最近更新 2026-05-18 12:30:25
分类：自动化依赖：代码执行 / 第三方 API / 内部调用大模型应用场景：财务 / 市场分析 / 自动化脚本 / 工作流

安装技能

复制下面的话术发给你的 Agent，它会通过 secure-skills 检索并安装该技能。

执行命令安装此 skill： npx secure-skills-cli add polymarket-multi-source-estimator
Metadata
name
polymarket-multi-source-estimator
description
Trade prediction markets using LLM probability estimation enriched with 10+ real-time data sources (news, economic data, sports odds, political polling, and more). The skill fetches context from RSS feeds, FRED, GDELT, bookmaker odds, and other APIs, then asks an LLM to estimate the true probability. Trades when the estimate diverges significantly from the market price.
metadata
{"author":"Mibayy","version":"1.1.4","displayName":"Multi-Source LLM Estimator","type":"automaton","difficulty":"advanced"}

Multi-Source LLM Estimator

A prediction market trading bot that enriches an LLM with real-time context from 10+ data sources. It compares the LLM's estimated probability against the current market price and trades when it detects significant mispricing.

How It Works

10+ Data Sources --> Context String --> LLM Prompt --> Probability Estimate
                                                              |
                                                    Compare vs Market Price
                                                              |
                                              Trade if divergence > threshold
  1. Fetches active markets from Polymarket (via Simmer SDK)
  2. For each market, gathers real-time context from relevant data sources
  3. Also checks cross-platform prices on Manifold and Kalshi
  4. Sends the question + context to an LLM for probability estimation
  5. If the LLM's estimate diverges from the market price by more than the threshold (default 15%), it places a trade

Data Sources

# Source What It Provides API Key Required
1 RSS News Headlines from 10 feeds (Reuters, BBC, Bloomberg, etc.) No
2 FRED Economic indicators (Fed rate, CPI, GDP, VIX, oil, gold) Yes (free)
3 GDELT Geopolitical event sentiment scores No
4 Odds API Sports bookmaker consensus probabilities Yes (free tier)
5 FiveThirtyEight US presidential approval polling averages No
6 Congress.gov Bill status and legislative tracking Yes (free)
7 OpenFDA Drug approval status and clinical trial data No
8 Open-Meteo Weather forecasts for major cities No
9 USGS Significant earthquake data No
10 Finnhub Earnings calendar and IPO data Yes (free)
11 Manifold Cross-platform prediction market prices No
12 Kalshi Cross-platform prediction market prices No

Sources are selected automatically based on category detection from the question text. Only relevant sources are queried to minimize latency.

Remixable Template

This skill is designed as a template you can customize:

  • Add your own data source: Implement a _get_X_context(question) function that returns a list[str] of context lines. Add it to _dispatch_sources().
  • Swap the LLM: Set LLM_API_URL and LLM_MODEL env vars to point at any OpenAI-compatible API (OpenRouter, Ollama, vLLM, etc.).
  • Adjust the threshold: Set ESTIMATOR_THRESHOLD higher for fewer but higher-conviction trades, or lower for more frequent trading.
  • Change the prompt: Edit the _build_prompt() function to customize the LLM's reasoning style.

Environment Variables

Required

Variable Description
SIMMER_API_KEY Simmer SDK API key for trading
LLM_API_KEY API key for your LLM provider (default: OpenRouter)

Optional

Variable Default Description
TRADING_VENUE sim Trading venue (sim for paper, polymarket for real)
TRADE_SIZE 10.0 Trade size in USD per trade
LLM_API_URL OpenRouter endpoint OpenAI-compatible chat completions URL
LLM_MODEL xiaomi/mimo-v2-flash:free Model identifier
ESTIMATOR_THRESHOLD 0.15 Min divergence to trigger a trade (0.0-1.0)
FRED_API_KEY — FRED API key (free at api.stlouisfed.org)
ODDS_API_KEY — The Odds API key (free at the-odds-api.com)
CONGRESS_API_KEY — Congress.gov API key (free)
FINNHUB_API_KEY — Finnhub API key (free tier)
LLM_CACHE_TTL 1800 LLM response cache TTL in seconds
LLM_MAX_CALLS 50 Max LLM calls per run

Usage

Dry-run (no trades, just log estimates):

python multi_source_estimator.py

Live trading:

python multi_source_estimator.py --live

Quiet mode (errors only):

python multi_source_estimator.py --live --quiet

Limit markets scanned:

python multi_source_estimator.py --live --max-markets 20

Scheduling

Runs every 5 minutes via cron (*/5 * * * *). Managed automaton (auto-executes on schedule). Capped at 50 LLM calls per run (LLM_MAX_CALLS) to control costs.

Security

  • All trades go through SimmerClient.trade() only. No direct CLOB or wallet access.
  • Dry-run by default. The --live flag must be explicitly passed to execute trades.
  • No wallet private keys are required or read by this script.
  • LLM receives only the market question text and publicly available context (news headlines, economic indicators, odds). No credentials or private data are sent to the LLM.
  • LLM_API_URL defaults to OpenRouter. You control which LLM endpoint is used.
  • All optional API keys (FRED, Odds, Congress, Finnhub) are for free public data APIs. If unset, those data sources are simply skipped.