What-if Scenario Planning (WISA)
When to Use
Use this skill when:
- A project plan needs risk simulation before execution
- The user asks “what if this changes?” in a project context
- There is uncertainty in schedule, cost, or resources
- The user is working in Excel, MS Project, or similar tools
Core Objective
Simulate alternate project scenarios by modifying key variables (duration, resources, cost) and evaluate their impact on:
- Project timeline
- Critical path
- Total cost
- Resource utilization
Execution Steps
Step 1: Establish Baseline Plan
Ensure a complete baseline exists:
- Tasks with durations
- Dependencies (network/PERT)
- Resources assigned
- Cost estimates
If missing → ask user to define baseline first.
Step 2: Identify Variables
Extract or ask for uncertain variables:
- Resource availability
- Task duration variability
- Budget constraints
- External risks (delays, logistics, approvals)
Focus only on high-impact variables (max 3 per scenario).
Step 3: Define Scenario
Create a structured scenario:
Format:
- Scenario Name:
- Variable Change:
- Duration/Impact Change:
- Time Window (if applicable):
Example:
- Resource A unavailable for 3 days starting Day 10
Step 4: Modify Project Model
If Excel:
- Adjust input cells (duration/resource %)
- Use:
- Scenario Manager
- Data Tables
If MS Project / Primavera:
- Duplicate baseline
- Modify:
- Task duration
- Resource allocation
- Dependencies if needed
Step 5: Simulate Impact
Recalculate project plan and capture:
- New project duration
- Critical path changes
- Cost variation
- Delayed milestones
Step 6: Compare with Baseline
Create structured comparison:
| Metric | Baseline | Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Duration | ||
| Cost | ||
| Critical Path |
Step 7: Evaluate Acceptability
Decide:
- Acceptable → proceed with scenario plan
- Not acceptable → propose mitigation:
- Add resources
- Re-sequence tasks
- Increase buffer
Step 8: Recommend Action
Always provide:
- Impact summary
- Decision recommendation
- Optional mitigation strategies
Output Format
Return results in this structure:
Scenario Summary
- Scenario:
- Key Change:
Impact Analysis
- Duration Change:
- Cost Impact:
- Critical Path Impact:
Recommendation
- Decision:
- Suggested Actions:
Rules
- Do NOT simulate without a baseline
- Limit scenarios to avoid combinatorial explosion
- Prefer clarity over complexity
- Always quantify impact (time/cost)
- If data is missing → ask user before proceeding
Notes
- This is deterministic scenario analysis (WISA)
- For probabilistic analysis, suggest Monte Carlo simulation
- Best used during planning and scheduling phase
Validation
Before finalizing:
- Ensure dependencies are preserved
- Check calculations consistency
- Validate assumptions with user context
- Confirm outputs are realistic (no negative durations, etc.)