Sensitivity Charts
Metadata
- Name: sensitivity-charts
- Description: Sensitivity analysis and tornado charts
- Triggers: sensitivity, tornado chart, what-if, variable impact
Instructions
Perform sensitivity analysis for $ARGUMENTS.
Framework
Tornado Chart
Base Case: $100M
│
┌─────────┼─────────┐
│ +$20M│ │-$10M Price
├─────────┼─────────┤
│ +$15M │ │-$8M Volume
├─────────┼─────────┤
│ +$8M │ │-$12M Cost
├─────────┼─────────┤
│ +$5M │ │-$3M Mix
└─────────┼─────────┘
│
▼
Variables to Test
| Variable | Range | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Price | ±10% | High |
| Volume | ±20% | High |
| Cost | ±15% | Medium |
| Mix | ±5% | Low |
Output
## Sensitivity Analysis: [Decision/Project]
### Variable Impact Ranking
| Variable | Base | Low Case | High Case | Impact |
|----------|------|----------|-----------|--------|
| Price | $100 | $85 (-15%) | $115 (+15%) | $30M |
| Volume | 1M | 800K | 1.2M | $25M |
| Cost | $50 | $45 | $55 | $20M |
| Mix | 50/50 | 40/60 | 60/40 | $10M |
### Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | NPV | Probability | Expected Value |
|----------|-----|-------------|----------------|
| Base Case | $100M | 50% | $50M |
| Optimistic | $150M | 20% | $30M |
| Pessimistic | $60M | 30% | $18M |
| **Expected** | | | **$98M** |
### Key Findings
1. **Most sensitive**: Price (±$30M impact)
2. **Least sensitive**: Mix (±$10M impact)
3. **Breakeven**: [Analysis]
### Risk Mitigation
1. [Mitigation for most sensitive variable]
2. [Mitigation for second most sensitive]
Tips
- Focus on top 5-7 variables
- Use realistic ranges
- Show both upside and downside