Kalshi Fed Temporal Monotonicity Trader
This is a template. The default signal detects temporal monotonicity violations in Fed rate markets -- remix it with live yield curve data, Fed funds futures, or options-implied probabilities. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Fed rate cut/hike markets across different meeting dates must satisfy temporal monotonicity: the probability of a cut "by June" must be >= the probability of a cut "by April", since June includes April. When this invariant is violated, we have a pure structural arbitrage.
Key advantages:
- Mathematical certainty -- this is a logical invariant, not a statistical edge
- No model risk -- the relationship P(by later) >= P(by earlier) is always true
- Self-correcting -- violations are temporary mispricings that must converge
Signal Logic
Temporal Monotonicity
- Scan all Fed rate cut/hike markets on Kalshi
- Group by year and type (cut vs hike)
- Sort chronologically by FOMC meeting date
- Compare: if P(cut by April) > P(cut by June) + threshold, violation detected
- Buy YES on the later (underpriced) date market
Conviction-Based Sizing
conviction = min(violation_size / violation_threshold, 2.0) / 2.0size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)- Larger violations = larger positions, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD
Risk Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Violation threshold | 3% | Min difference to trigger trade |
| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |
| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |
| Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |
| Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |
| Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |
Installation & Setup
clawhub install kalshi-fed-temporal-mono-trader
Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.
Cron Schedule
Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
python trader.py |
Dry run | None |
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |
python trader.py --live |
Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY |
Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY |
Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_FED_TEMP_VIOLATION_THRESHOLD |
0.03 |
Min violation size to trigger trade |
SIMMER_FED_TEMP_EXIT_THRESHOLD |
0.45 |
Sell position when price reaches this level |
SIMMER_FED_TEMP_MAX_POSITION_USD |
5.00 |
Max USDC per trade |
SIMMER_FED_TEMP_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN |
3 |
Max trades per execution cycle |
SIMMER_FED_TEMP_SLIPPAGE_MAX |
0.15 |
Max slippage before skipping trade |
SIMMER_FED_TEMP_MIN_LIQUIDITY |
0 |
Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |
Dependency
simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
- Publisher: hello@simmer.markets
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.