Kalshi ETH Merge Momentum Trader
This is a template. The default signal uses a static 0.5% annual burn rate -- remix it with live ultrasound.money data, dynamic burn rate tracking, or EIP-1559 base fee analysis. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Post-merge Ethereum burns approximately 0.5% of its total supply annually through the EIP-1559 fee burn mechanism. When gas usage exceeds issuance to validators, ETH becomes net deflationary. This skill computes a deflation-adjusted fair value and trades when markets underprice this structural supply reduction.
Key advantages:
- Structural thesis -- supply reduction is mechanical, not speculative
- Time-sensitive -- longer time horizons amplify the deflation effect
- Verifiable -- burn rate data is on-chain and public
Signal Logic
Deflation Model
- Compute deflation-adjusted price:
adj = base * (1 + net_deflation * days/365 * 0.5) - Convert price target to fair probability using logistic model
- Compare fair probability to market price
- Trade when
|fair - market| >= entry_edge
Remix Ideas
- Live burn rate: Track ultrasound.money for real-time ETH burn data
- Dynamic issuance: Adjust for changing validator count
- Gas price correlation: Higher gas = higher burn = more deflation
- Macro overlay: Fed rate expectations affect crypto demand
Risk Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry edge | 10% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade |
| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |
| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |
| Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |
| Annual burn rate | 0.5% | ETH supply burn rate assumption |
| Base ETH price | $3500 | Current ETH price baseline |
Installation & Setup
clawhub install kalshi-eth-merge-momentum-trader
Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.
Cron Schedule
Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
python trader.py |
Dry run | None |
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |
python trader.py --live |
Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY |
Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY |
Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_ENTRY_EDGE |
0.10 |
Min divergence to trigger trade |
SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_EXIT_THRESHOLD |
0.45 |
Sell position when price reaches this level |
SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MAX_POSITION_USD |
5.00 |
Max USDC per trade |
SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN |
3 |
Max trades per execution cycle |
SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_SLIPPAGE_MAX |
0.15 |
Max slippage before skipping (15%) |
SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MIN_LIQUIDITY |
0 |
Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |
SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_BURN_PCT |
0.5 |
Annual ETH supply burn rate (%) |
SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_BASE_PRICE |
3500 |
Current ETH price baseline ($) |
Dependency
simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
- Publisher: hello@simmer.markets
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.