Kalshi Economic Nowcast Trader
This is a template.
The default signal uses the Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast point estimate and standard deviation to price CPI bins -- remix it with real-time nowcast scraping, multiple nowcast sources, or Bayesian updating as data arrives.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Kalshi lists CPI bin markets ("Will CPI be between 0.2% and 0.3%?"). This skill prices each bin using the Cleveland Fed's CPI Nowcast as the mean of a normal distribution, then trades when the market price diverges from the model probability.
Key advantages:
- Cleveland Fed Nowcast is free and public -- updated regularly with high accuracy
- Normal distribution is well-calibrated for CPI -- historically fits actual outcomes
- Multiple bins per release -- diversified signal across the distribution
Signal Logic
Nowcast-to-Bin Model
- Load Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast estimate and standard deviation
- Compute P(CPI in [low, high]) = Phi(z_high) - Phi(z_low) for each bin
- Compare model probability to Kalshi market price
- Trade when
|model - market| >= entry_edge
Example (with defaults: estimate=0.3%, stddev=0.15%)
| Bin | Model P | Market P | Edge | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1%-0.2% | 9.2% | 15% | -5.8% | Hold |
| 0.2%-0.3% | 34.1% | 20% | +14.1% | BUY YES |
| 0.4%-0.5% | 9.2% | 22% | -12.8% | BUY NO |
Remix Ideas
- Live nowcast scraper: Auto-refresh from Cleveland Fed website
- Multi-source ensemble: Average Cleveland Fed, NY Fed, and Atlanta Fed nowcasts
- Bayesian updates: Incorporate PPI, import prices, and other leading indicators
- Volatility scaling: Widen stddev near data release dates
Risk Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry edge | 10% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade |
| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |
| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |
| Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |
| Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |
| Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |
Installation & Setup
clawhub install kalshi-econ-nowcast-trader
Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.
Cron Schedule
Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
python trader.py |
Dry run | None |
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |
python trader.py --live |
Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |
The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY |
Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY |
Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_ECON_NOW_ENTRY_EDGE |
0.10 |
Min divergence between nowcast model and market to trigger trade |
SIMMER_ECON_NOW_EXIT_THRESHOLD |
0.45 |
Sell position when price reaches this level |
SIMMER_ECON_NOW_MAX_POSITION_USD |
5.00 |
Max USDC per trade |
SIMMER_ECON_NOW_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN |
3 |
Max trades per execution cycle |
SIMMER_ECON_NOW_SLIPPAGE_MAX |
0.15 |
Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%) |
SIMMER_ECON_NOW_MIN_LIQUIDITY |
0 |
Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |
Dependency
simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
- Publisher: hello@simmer.markets
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.