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Kalshi Crypto Volatility Skew Trader

该 Skill 通过 simmer-sdk 获取 Kalshi 比特币价格区间市场数据，以历史约60%年化波动率的对数正态模型估算公允概率，按入场边际、仓位上限和滑点等参数识别偏斜定价并执行交易；默认纸面运行，传入 --live 才进行实盘。定时任务未配置，且模板未包含替代波动率模型或回测验证。

diagnostikon
diagnostikon
热度 44.35
最近更新 2026-05-11 17:39:51
分类：自动化依赖：代码执行 / 第三方 API应用场景：财务 / 市场分析 / 自动化脚本

安装技能

复制下面的话术发给你的 Agent，它会通过 secure-skills 检索并安装该技能。

执行命令安装此 skill： npx secure-skills-cli add kalshi-crypto-volatility-skew-trader
Metadata
name
kalshi-crypto-volatility-skew-trader
description
Trades Bitcoin price bin markets on Kalshi by comparing market-implied volatility to BTC historical ~60% annualized vol using a lognormal model. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. Use when you want to capture alpha from volatility skew mispricing.
metadata
{"author":"Diagnostikon","owner":"Diagnostikon","version":"1.0.0","displayName":"Kalshi Crypto Volatility Skew Trader","difficulty":"advanced","homepage":"https://simmer.markets/skills","repository":"https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk","requires_env":"SIMMER_API_KEY","requires_pip":"simmer-sdk","default_mode":"paper","live_flag":"--live"}

Kalshi Crypto Volatility Skew Trader

This is a template.
The default signal uses BTC historical annualized vol (~60%) to compute fair bin probabilities via lognormal model -- remix it with options-implied vol surface, realized vol regimes, or GARCH models.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Bitcoin price bin markets on Kalshi imply a probability distribution over future BTC prices. This skill compares that implied distribution to a lognormal model calibrated on BTC's historical ~60% annualized volatility. When the market implies a different vol, the bins are mispriced.

Key advantages:

  • Historical vol is well-documented -- BTC trailing 1-year vol has consistently averaged ~60%
  • Lognormal model is standard -- same framework used by options traders worldwide
  • Vol skew detection -- estimates implied vol from market prices and identifies directional skew
  • Bin-level edge -- finds the specific bins most mispriced by the vol mismatch

Signal Logic

Volatility Skew Model

  1. Parse BTC price bin boundaries from market questions
  2. Estimate market-implied vol via grid search over lognormal model
  3. Compute fair bin probabilities using historical 60% vol
  4. Compare fair probability to market price per bin
  5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Conviction-Based Sizing

  • conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
  • size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
  • Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Remix Ideas

  • Deribit options surface: Use actual options-implied vol instead of historical
  • Realized vol regimes: Switch between high/low vol regimes based on recent price action
  • GARCH forecasting: Use GARCH(1,1) to forecast forward vol dynamically
  • Correlation with macro: Adjust vol for Fed meetings, CPI releases, halving proximity

Risk Parameters

Parameter Default Notes
Entry edge 8% Min fair-vs-market divergence to trade
Exit threshold 45% Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size $5.00 USDC Per market
Max trades per run 4 Rate limiting
Max slippage 15% Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity $0 Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-crypto-volatility-skew-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario Mode Financial risk
python trader.py Dry run None
Cron / automaton Dry run None
python trader.py --live Live (Kalshi via DFlow) Real USDC

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Variable Required Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY Yes Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

Variable Default Purpose
SIMMER_CRYPTO_VSKEW_ENTRY_EDGE 0.08 Min divergence between fair and market to trigger trade
SIMMER_CRYPTO_VSKEW_EXIT_THRESHOLD 0.45 Sell position when price reaches this level
SIMMER_CRYPTO_VSKEW_MAX_POSITION_USD 5.00 Max USDC per trade
SIMMER_CRYPTO_VSKEW_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN 4 Max trades per execution cycle
SIMMER_CRYPTO_VSKEW_SLIPPAGE_MAX 0.15 Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%)
SIMMER_CRYPTO_VSKEW_MIN_LIQUIDITY 0 Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.