Polymarket Optimizer — Adaptive Parameter Tuner
🧠 WHAT IT DOES
Reads trading performance from polymarket-executor, analyzes what works, and adjusts parameters automatically.
Runs every 6 hours via OpenClaw cron job. Zero manual intervention required.
Input files (written by executor):
performance_metrics.json— per-strategy win rates, P&L, trade countspaper_trades.json— all simulated trade recordsportfolio.json— capital, positions, daily P&L
Output files (read by executor at next startup):
learned_config.json— updated thresholds, Kelly fraction, allocationsoptimizer_log.jsonl— full history of every optimization run
⚡ QUICK START
cd /data/.openclaw/workspace/skills/polymarket-optimizer
python3 polymarket_optimizer.py
Expected output:
============================================================
POLYMARKET OPTIMIZER v1.0.0
Run time: 2026-03-05 14:00:00 UTC
============================================================
[CONFIG] Loaded. Optimization #1
[PORTFOLIO] Health: HEALTHY
[PORTFOLIO] Capital: $102.34 | Return: 2.3%
[ANALYSIS] parity_arbitrage: EXCELLENT | WR=100.0% | Trades=8 | P&L=+0.523
[ANALYSIS] tail_end: GOOD | WR=75.0% | Trades=12 | P&L=+0.312
[OPTIMIZER] 2 adjustments made:
🚀 parity_arb excellent → min_profit 0.020 → 0.015
📈 parity_arb allocation 30% → 40%
[READINESS] Resolved trades: 8/30
[READINESS] Win rate: 84.6% (need 55%+)
[TELEGRAM] Report sent.
============================================================
OPTIMIZER COMPLETE
============================================================
🔧 WHAT IT ADJUSTS
Strategy Thresholds
| If strategy is... | Action |
|---|---|
| Poor (WR < 50%) | Raise threshold → trade only best opportunities |
| Underperforming (WR 50–65%) | Slight threshold increase |
| Average (WR 65–80%) | No change |
| Good (WR 65–80%, positive P&L) | No change |
| Excellent (WR > 80%) | Lower threshold → capture more volume |
Capital Allocation
| If strategy is... | Action |
|---|---|
| Poor | Reduce allocation (min 5–10%) |
| Excellent | Increase allocation (max 50–70%) |
Allocations always normalized to sum to 100%.
Kelly Fraction
| Portfolio health | Action |
|---|---|
| Critical (return < -10%) | Reduce Kelly → smaller positions |
| Excellent (return > 10%, WR > 65%) | Increase Kelly → larger positions |
Scan Frequency
| Condition | Action |
|---|---|
| WR > 80% + 20+ trades | Scan faster (min 120s) |
| Portfolio warning/critical | Scan slower (max 600s) |
📊 LIVE READINESS ASSESSMENT
Every run evaluates whether paper trading results justify going live.
4 criteria must ALL pass:
| Criterion | Threshold |
|---|---|
| Resolved trades | ≥ 30 |
| Win rate | ≥ 55% |
| Total P&L | Positive |
| Circuit breaker | Not active |
Telegram report includes readiness status automatically.
📱 TELEGRAM REPORT
🧠 POLYMARKET OPTIMIZER REPORT
🕐 2026-03-05 14:00 UTC
🔄 Optimization #4
Portfolio Health: 🟢 HEALTHY
💰 Capital: $108.45
📈 Return: 8.5%
🎯 Win Rate: 76.9%
📊 Total Trades: 20
Strategy Performance:
🚀 parity_arbitrage: 100.0% WR | 8 trades | P&L: +0.523
✅ tail_end: 75.0% WR | 12 trades | P&L: +0.312
Adjustments Made:
🚀 parity_arb excellent → min_profit 0.020 → 0.015
📈 parity_arb allocation 30% → 40%
⚖️ Allocations renormalized
Live Trading Readiness:
🔴 NOT YET READY
❌ Need 30+ resolved trades
📊 Progress: 20/30 trades
🎯 Win rate: 76.9% (need 55%+) ✅
📁 FILES
| File | Location | Description |
|---|---|---|
polymarket_optimizer.py |
skills/polymarket-optimizer/ |
Main optimizer script |
learned_config.json |
WORKSPACE/ |
Output — read by executor |
optimizer_log.jsonl |
WORKSPACE/ |
Full optimization history |
⏰ CRON JOB
Add to OpenClaw cron configuration:
# Run optimizer every 6 hours
0 */6 * * * docker exec openclaw-yyvg-openclaw-1 python3 /data/.openclaw/workspace/skills/polymarket-optimizer/polymarket_optimizer.py
Version: 1.0.0 | License: MIT | Author: Georges Andronescu (Wesley Armando)