Sports & Championships Trader
This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Sports prediction markets are dominated by passionate fans who bet emotionally. This creates two structural edges this skill exploits without any external API:
- Fan loyalty dampening — Popular clubs (Real Madrid, Man City, Lakers) are systematically overpriced by emotional retail traders
- Sports calendar timing — Each sport has a defined peak season; trading in-season means better signal density
Signal Logic
Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Fan Bias + Calendar
- Discover active sports markets on Polymarket
- Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
- Apply
sport_bias()— combines fan loyalty adjustment with sports calendar timing - Size =
max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION)— capped at MAX_POSITION - Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution
Sport Bias (built-in, no API required)
Factor 1 — Fan Loyalty Adjustment
| Market type | Multiplier | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Fan-favorite clubs (Real Madrid, Man City, Lakers) | 0.75x | Fan loyalty inflates YES — high noise, trade cautiously |
| Peak fan events (Super Bowl, UCL final, World Cup final) | 0.80x | Maximum emotional retail attention = maximum mispricing |
| Individual sports (tennis, F1, golf) | 1.15x | Individual performance is more data-driven than team sports |
| Transfer / contract markets | 1.20x | Journalist sources trackable before market reprices |
| Award markets (MVP, Ballon d'Or, Golden Boot) | 1.10x | Stats-driven — quantifiable advantage |
Factor 2 — Sports Calendar Timing
| Sport / Event | Active season | In-season multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| Football title run-in (UCL, PL, Liga) | Mar–May | 1.15x |
| Transfer windows | Jan + Jun–Sep | 1.20x |
| NBA playoffs | Apr–Jun | 1.15x |
| NFL season | Sep–Feb | 1.10x |
| Tennis / Wimbledon | Jun–Sep | 1.15x |
Combined and capped at 1.35x. Example: Transfer market in July → 1.20 × 1.20 = 1.35x (capped).
Remix Signal Ideas
- Club Elo: Replace
market.current_probabilitywith Elo-implied win probability — trade divergence vs market - FiveThirtyEight NBA/NFL models: Same divergence approach for American sports
- Transfermarkt API: Player valuations and injury status as signal inputs
- ESPN hidden API:
https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/{sport}/{league}/scoreboardfor live scores/injury data
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
python trader.py |
Paper (sim) | None |
| Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None |
python trader.py --live |
Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |
autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY |
Yes | Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION |
25 |
Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) |
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME |
5000 |
Min market volume filter (USD) |
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD |
0.08 |
Max bid-ask spread (8%) |
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS |
2 |
Min days until resolution |
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS |
8 |
Max concurrent open positions |
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD |
0.38 |
Buy YES if market price ≤ this value |
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD |
0.62 |
Sell NO if market price ≥ this value |
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE |
5 |
Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |
Dependency
simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)