48h Sports Line Curve Trader

This is a template. The default signal is implied O/U curve violation detection across sports markets -- remix it with additional sports, line types, or cross-venue feeds. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, curve construction, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists multiple over/under lines for the same sporting event:

• "Team A vs Team B O/U 5.5" = 50%
• "Team A vs Team B O/U 6.5" = 46%
• "Team A vs Team B O/U 7.5" = 29%

Retail trades each market as an isolated bet. But together, these markets form an implied probability curve -- higher totals must always be less likely for the OVER side.

This skill reconstructs that curve and finds where it is mathematically broken.

The Edge: Sports Line Curve Arbitrage

Violation Type 1: Monotonicity Break

The probability of going OVER a lower line must always be greater than or equal to going OVER a higher line:

P(O/U 5.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 6.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 7.5 OVER)

If a higher line is priced above a lower line, the curve is broken -- pure structural arbitrage.

Violation Type 2: Tennis Set vs Match Inconsistency

For tennis, the match total always equals or exceeds the Set 1 total. Therefore:

P(Match O/U X OVER) >= P(Set 1 O/U X OVER)

If a Set 1 O/U market is priced higher than the equivalent Match O/U market, the relationship is violated.

Why This Works

1. Retail trades in silos -- most users view each O/U line independently and do not cross-reference the full line ladder
2. No market maker enforcement -- unlike sportsbooks, there is no central entity maintaining curve consistency across lines
3. Mathematical, not opinion -- the violations are provable inconsistencies in the implied distribution
4. Applies across sports -- football, basketball, tennis, esports (kills, maps), baseball, hockey

Signal Logic

1. Discover all sports O/U markets via keyword search (O/U, total goals, total kills, etc.)
2. Parse each question: extract game/match name, O/U line value, scope (set or match)
3. Group into curves by (game, scope)
4. For each curve with 2+ points:
   • Check monotonicity: P(O/U X OVER) must decrease as X increases
   • Check tennis set-vs-match consistency
5. Rank violations by magnitude
6. Trade only violations that also pass threshold gates (YES_THRESHOLD / NO_THRESHOLD)
7. Size by conviction (violation magnitude), not flat amount

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Edge Thesis

Traditional sportsbooks have professional line-setters who enforce consistency across O/U lines for the same game. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each O/U market is priced by its own order book with its own liquidity pool. This creates systematic micro-inconsistencies in the implied distribution, especially when:

• New O/U lines are added at previously unlisted values
• Large directional flow pushes one line without propagating to neighbors
• Market makers leave gaps during low-liquidity hours
• Tennis set-level markets diverge from match-level markets

This skill treats the O/U line ladder as a probability curve and trades the repair.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk