Kalshi F1 Elimination Trader

核心功能：检测F1车手是否已数学无缘总冠军，在Kalshi市场对仍被定价的淘汰车手卖出NO合约，自动完成市场发现、交易执行及风控。典型场景：F1赛季进程中，市场未及时更新淘汰车手定价时。需输入车手积分、剩余赛事数据（可对接实时F1 API），默认纸盘交易，加参数可切实盘，策略基于数学确定性，无模型误差风险。

diagnostikon

热度 44.33

最近更新 2026-05-18 11:38:19

分类：自动化依赖：代码执行 / 第三方 API应用场景：财务 / 自动化脚本 / 市场分析

安装技能

复制下面的话术发给你的 Agent，它会通过 secure-skills 检索并安装该技能。

执行命令安装此 skill： npx secure-skills-cli add kalshi-f1-elimination-trader

Metadata

name: kalshi-f1-elimination-trader
description: Trades F1 Drivers Championship markets on Kalshi by identifying mathematically eliminated drivers still priced above zero. Sells NO on eliminated drivers for guaranteed edge. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.
metadata: {"author":"Diagnostikon","owner":"Diagnostikon","version":"1.0.0","displayName":"Kalshi F1 Elimination Trader","difficulty":"intermediate","homepage":"https://simmer.markets/skills","repository":"https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk","requires_env":"SIMMER_API_KEY","requires_pip":"simmer-sdk","default_mode":"paper","live_flag":"--live"}

Kalshi F1 Elimination Trader

This is a template. The default signal uses static championship standings -- remix it with live F1 API data for real-time elimination detection as races complete. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

As the F1 season progresses, drivers become mathematically eliminated from the championship. A driver is eliminated when their maximum possible points (current + MAX_POINTS_PER_RACE * remaining races) is less than the leader's current total. Yet Kalshi markets often still price eliminated drivers above 0% -- this is free money.

Key advantages:

Mathematical certainty -- elimination is a provable fact, not a prediction
Low entry edge -- even 3% market price on an eliminated driver is pure edge
Markets lag reality -- retail traders forget to update stale positions
Zero-risk thesis -- the only risk is execution/timing, not model error

Signal Logic

Elimination Detection

Track championship standings (points per driver)
Calculate remaining races in the season
For each driver: max_possible = current_points + 26 * remaining_races
Driver is eliminated if max_possible < leader_points
If eliminated AND market price > entry_edge -> BUY NO

Points per Race

Component	Points
Win	25
Fastest lap	1
Max per race	26

Conviction-Based Sizing

conviction = min(market_price / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
Higher market price on eliminated driver = more conviction = larger position

Risk Parameters

Parameter	Default	Notes
Entry edge	3%	Min market price on eliminated driver to trade
Exit threshold	45%	Sell when position price reaches this
Max position size	$5.00 USDC	Per market
Max trades per run	5	Rate limiting
Max slippage	15%	Skip if slippage exceeds
Min liquidity	$0	Disabled by default

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-f1-elimination-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

Scenario	Mode	Financial risk
`python trader.py`	Dry run	None
Cron / automaton	Dry run	None
`python trader.py --live`	Live (Kalshi via DFlow)	Real USDC

Required Credentials

Variable	Required	Notes
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	Yes	Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential.
`SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY`	Yes	Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

Variable	Default	Purpose
`SIMMER_F1_ELIM_ENTRY_EDGE`	`0.03`	Min market price on eliminated driver to trade
`SIMMER_F1_ELIM_EXIT_THRESHOLD`	`0.45`	Sell position when price reaches this level
`SIMMER_F1_ELIM_MAX_POSITION_USD`	`5.00`	Max USDC per trade
`SIMMER_F1_ELIM_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN`	`5`	Max trades per execution cycle
`SIMMER_F1_ELIM_SLIPPAGE_MAX`	`0.15`	Max slippage before skipping trade
`SIMMER_F1_ELIM_MIN_LIQUIDITY`	`0`	Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled)

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
Publisher: hello@simmer.markets