Betting

When to Use

Betting questions involving sports, props, parlays, exchanges, or prediction-style tickets where price, edge, and stake size matter. Agent handles market normalization, implied probability math, line comparison, sizing discipline, and quick rejection of bad bets.

Architecture

Memory lives in ~/betting/. If ~/betting/ does not exist, run setup.md. See memory-template.md for structure.

~/betting/
├── memory.md        # Preferences, books, and activation rules
├── tickets.md       # Active or reviewed bets and follow-ups
├── market-notes.md  # Sports, books, and recurring edge notes
└── archive/         # Old tickets and retired observations

Data Storage

• ~/betting/memory.md stores activation rules, preferred sports, and user-stated constraints
• ~/betting/tickets.md stores active or reviewed ticket notes when the user wants tracking
• ~/betting/market-notes.md stores recurring market observations that improve future analysis
• ~/betting/archive/ stores older notes that no longer need to stay hot

Quick Reference

Requirements

• No account auth required
• No extra binaries required
• Live odds or injury news only when the user provides data or explicitly asks to fetch public information
• The user is responsible for legal age, jurisdiction, operator rules, and local compliance

Clean Ticket Protocol

Use the full workflow in workflow.md. Every ticket should pass this order:

1. Define the exact market, book, line, price, stake, and settlement rule
2. Normalize odds and break-even probability with sizing.md
3. Check market integrity, limits, and void rules with market-checks.md
4. Run the fast rejection list in red-flags.md
5. Return an analysis memo using ticket-template.md: positive edge, reduce size, wait, or pass

Core Rules

1. Price Comes Before Opinion

• Convert every bet into implied probability and break-even price before discussing narratives
• If the user only has a take and no number, build the number first or state that the edge is unproven

2. Markets Must Match Exactly

• Team names, alternate lines, overtime rules, void rules, and player participation terms must refer to the same economic outcome
• If two tickets settle differently, they cannot be compared as if they were the same bet

3. Size Last, Not First

• Do not discuss stake sizing until price, edge, limits, and failure modes are clear
• Use sizing.md to frame analytical stake ranges, capped units, or pass; default conservative when inputs are weak

4. Default to No Bet Under Unclear Edge

• Missing injury status, stale odds, unknown limits, or hand-wavy probability estimates should end in wait or pass
• Good betting analysis is often the discipline to reject action, not to force it

5. Parlays Need Independent Legs

• Treat correlated legs, same-game parlays, and market boosts as separate risk products, not free multiplier math
• If independence is unclear, label correlation risk and avoid fake expected value claims

6. Live Betting Needs Latency Awareness

• For live markets, ask when the quote was seen, what triggered the move, and whether the book can still be hit
• If latency or suspension likely invalidates the number, downgrade the ticket immediately

7. Output a Ticket Memo, Not Hype

• End with fair price, book price, edge estimate, maximum analytical size, kill conditions, and next action
• Never call a bet guaranteed, safe, lawful, or suitable for the user personally

Legal and Responsible Use

• This skill provides informational analysis only, not legal, tax, financial, licensing, or gambling-compliance advice
• Do not help minors, self-excluded users, or users in prohibited jurisdictions place or access bets
• Do not suggest ways around KYC, AML, geo-blocking, self-exclusion, deposit limits, or operator rules
• Do not promote bonus abuse, affiliate links, referral deals, or language that frames gambling as income, investing, or debt recovery
• If legality, licensing, or operator compliance is unclear, stop at general information and tell the user to check local law or licensed counsel

Market Lens

Common Traps

Scope

This skill ONLY:

• Analyzes bets, prices, and sizing discipline
• Stores user-stated preferences and notes in ~/betting/
• Uses workflow.md, market-checks.md, sizing.md, ticket-template.md, and red-flags.md for repeatable analysis
• Identifies when the right answer is no bet, smaller size, or wait

This skill NEVER:

• Places bets, logs into books, or moves funds
• Stores login details, wallet recovery phrases, or account recovery data
• Helps bypass age, jurisdiction, KYC, AML, or self-exclusion controls
• Promotes profit, certainty, or personalized financial suitability
• Hides uncertainty when lines, rules, or data are incomplete

Security & Privacy

Data that leaves your machine:

• None by default
• If the user explicitly asks for live public information, only the markets, teams, players, or books needed for that request

Data that stays local:

• Preferences, tickets, and notes in ~/betting/

This skill does NOT:

• Store login details
• Read unrelated files
• Make undeclared network requests

Related Skills

Install with clawhub install <slug> if user confirms:

• decide - structure tradeoffs and pass-or-proceed decisions without hype
• legal - tighten wording when the user asks about compliance, terms, or risk boundaries
• pricing - reason about price quality when the user needs cleaner expected value language
• trader - frame discipline, journaling, and risk control for repeated decision making

Feedback

• If useful: clawhub star betting
• Stay updated: clawhub sync