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model-update

面向股票研究或财务建模的模型更新流程：识别财报、指引、宏观或假设变化，录入实际值与分部数据，修正未来预测，重算 DCF、P/E、EV/EBITDA 估值与目标价，并输出变化摘要；仅提供方法论和表格结构，不含数据源或计算脚本。

anthropics
热度 0.00
最近更新 2026-10-19 02:04:12
分类：数据依赖：纯提示词应用场景：财务 / 报告撰写 / 市场分析

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执行命令安装此 skill： npx secure-skills-cli add anthropics/financial-services/model-update
Metadata
name
model-update
description
Update financial models with new data — quarterly earnings, management guidance, macro changes, or revised assumptions. Adjusts estimates, recalculates valuation, and flags material changes. Use after earnings, guidance updates, or when assumptions need refreshing. Triggers on "update model", "plug earnings", "refresh estimates", "update numbers for [company]", "new guidance", or "revise estimates".

Model Update

Workflow

Step 1: Identify What Changed

Determine the update trigger:

  • Earnings release: New quarterly actuals to plug in
  • Guidance change: Company updated forward outlook
  • Estimate revision: Analyst changing assumptions based on new data
  • Macro update: Interest rates, FX, commodity prices changed
  • Event-driven: M&A, restructuring, new product, management change

Step 2: Plug New Data

After Earnings

Update the model with reported actuals:

Line Item Prior Estimate Actual Delta Notes
Revenue
Gross Margin
Operating Expenses
EBITDA
EPS
[Key metric 1]
[Key metric 2]

Segment Detail (if applicable):

  • Update each segment's revenue and margin
  • Note any segment mix shifts

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Updates:

  • Cash and debt balances
  • Share count (buybacks, dilution)
  • Capex actual vs. estimate
  • Working capital changes

Step 3: Revise Forward Estimates

Based on the new data, adjust forward estimates:

Old FY Est New FY Est Change Old Next FY New Next FY Change
Revenue
EBITDA
EPS

Key Assumption Changes:

  • What assumptions are you changing and why?
  • Revenue growth rate: old → new (reason)
  • Margin assumption: old → new (reason)
  • Any new items (restructuring charges, one-time gains, etc.)

Step 4: Valuation Impact

Recalculate valuation with updated estimates:

Valuation Method Prior Updated Change
DCF fair value
P/E (NTM EPS × target multiple)
EV/EBITDA (NTM EBITDA × target multiple)
Price Target

Step 5: Summary & Action

Estimate Change Summary:

  • One paragraph: what changed, why, and what it means for the stock
  • Is this a thesis-changing event or noise?

Rating / Price Target:

  • Maintain or change rating?
  • New price target (if changed) with methodology
  • Upside/downside to current price

Step 6: Output

  • Updated Excel model (if user provides the existing model)
  • Estimate change summary (markdown or Word)
  • Updated price target derivation

Important Notes

  • Always reconcile your estimates to the company's reported figures before projecting forward
  • Note any non-recurring items and whether your estimates are GAAP or adjusted
  • Track your estimate revision history — it shows your analytical progression
  • If the quarter was noisy, separate signal from noise in your estimate changes
  • Check consensus after updating — how do your revised estimates compare to the Street?
  • Share count matters — dilution from stock comp, converts, or buybacks can materially affect EPS