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AI Displacement Monitor

该 Skill 定义 10 个指标（Tier A/B/C）、阈值分层与复合风险信号灯规则（GREEN/YELLOW/ORANGE/RED），并给出“工业革命视角”“弱环节”解释准则、最小质量规则与告警风格，最终输出信号板、综合风险等级、行动建议和数据缺口，可选机器可读 JSON。

spyfree
spyfree
热度 73.83
最近更新 2026-05-11 17:26:57
分类：数据依赖：读写文件应用场景：报告撰写 / 市场分析 / 财务 / 研究

安装技能

复制下面的话术发给你的 Agent，它会通过 secure-skills 检索并安装该技能。

执行命令安装此 skill： npx secure-skills-cli add ai-displacement-monitor
Metadata
name
ai-displacement-monitor
description
Monitor early-warning signals of AI-driven white-collar labor displacement and macro-financial spillovers. Use when you need a practical indicator framework, thresholds, alert logic, and concise risk updates for employment, consumption, and credit stress.

AI Displacement Monitor

Use this skill to produce a structured risk monitor for AI-led labor substitution and downstream financial stress.

Output Format

Always return:

  1. Signal Board (10 indicators with latest value, direction, threshold status)
  2. Composite Risk Light (GREEN / YELLOW / ORANGE / RED)
  3. Actionable Notes (portfolio/risk posture suggestions)
  4. Data Gaps (missing or stale inputs)

Indicator Framework

Read references/thresholds.example.json and follow its indicator IDs, thresholds, and tiering.

Also apply the "Industrial-Revolution Lens" when interpreting risk:

  • Do not evaluate layoffs alone.

  • Compare substitution speed vs re-absorption speed (new demand + new capex).

  • If substitution weakens labor but capex/reinvestment accelerates, avoid over-escalating crisis labels.

  • Tier A (Leading labor demand): A1-A4

  • Tier B (Labor market confirmation): B1-B3

  • Tier C (Spillover: consumption/credit): C1-C3

Composite Rule

  • YELLOW: Tier A triggered >= 2
  • ORANGE: Tier A >= 2 and Tier B >= 1
  • RED: Tier A >= 2 and Tier B >= 1 and Tier C >= 1
  • GREEN: otherwise

Weak-Links Interpretation (Jones Lens)

When assessing macro impact, apply a weak-links check:

  • Broad automation can still deliver gradual macro gains if key bottleneck tasks remain scarce.
  • Do not infer immediate macro collapse from partial task automation alone.
  • If bottleneck proxies remain tight (D3 worsening, D4 weak reinvestment), keep risk elevated.
  • If bottlenecks ease via reinvestment/capex and purchasing power improves (D1/D2), avoid over-escalation.

Minimum Quality Rules

  • Time-stamp each metric and note frequency mismatch (weekly vs monthly vs quarterly).
  • If source coverage is partial, mark confidence as low or medium.
  • Never hide missing data; list it under Data Gaps.
  • If more than 3 indicators are missing, downgrade confidence by one level.

Recommended Alert Style

Keep alerts short and decision-oriented:

  • "What changed"
  • "Why it matters now"
  • "What to do next"

Optional JSON Mode

If user asks for machine-readable output, return:

  • asOf
  • signals[] (id, value, unit, threshold, triggered, trend)
  • composite
  • confidence
  • gaps[]
  • notes[]