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Polymarket Kalshi Divergence

轮询 Kalshi 公共 API 的 13 个事件系列价格，与 Polymarket 对应市场比较；当价差超过 8% 或 10% 时生成 BUY/SELL 信号；默认演练，传入 --live 后通过 SimmerClient 执行真实交易。

Mibayy
Mibayy
热度 16.00
最近更新 2026-03-20 20:11:51
分类：自动化依赖：代码执行 / 第三方 API应用场景：财务 / 市场分析 / 自动化脚本 / 数据处理

安装技能

复制下面的话术发给你的 Agent，它会通过 secure-skills 检索并安装该技能。

执行命令安装此 skill： npx secure-skills-cli add kalshi-divergence
Metadata
name
polymarket-kalshi-divergence
description
Cross-platform arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket. Monitors 13 Kalshi event series (crypto, macro, politics) and compares prices to equivalent Polymarket markets. Generates BUY signals when gap exceeds 8% and SELL signals above 10%.
metadata
{"author":"Mibayy","version":"1.5.0","displayName":"Kalshi-Polymarket Divergence Arb","difficulty":"intermediate"}

Kalshi-Polymarket Divergence Arb

Cross-platform price divergence trading between Kalshi and Polymarket.

What It Does

Polls Kalshi's public API for live prices across 13 event series and compares them to equivalent Polymarket markets found via SimmerClient. When prices diverge beyond threshold, the cheaper side is likely underpriced.

Covered Series

Series Category Description
KXBTC, KXETH, KXSOL, KXXRP, KXDOGE Crypto Price threshold markets
KXFED Macro Fed rate decisions
KXCPI Macro CPI prints
KXUNEMP Macro Unemployment data
KXGLD, KXOIL Commodities Price threshold markets
KXNASDAQ, KXSPY, KXINX Indices Index level markets

Signal Logic

  • BUY — Polymarket price is >8% below Kalshi equivalent (Polymarket underpriced)
  • SELL — Polymarket price is >10% above Kalshi equivalent (Polymarket overpriced)
  • Asymmetric thresholds account for Polymarket's typically lower liquidity

Requirements

pip dependencies: simmer-sdk, requests

Environment variables:

  • SIMMER_API_KEY (required) - get from simmer.markets/dashboard

Dry-run by default. Pass --live to execute real trades.

Usage

python kalshi_divergence.py                  # dry run (default, no trades)
python kalshi_divergence.py --live           # real trades via SimmerClient
python kalshi_divergence.py --live --quiet   # cron mode

Security and Credential Handling

  • All trades go through SimmerClient.trade() only. No direct CLOB or wallet access.
  • The script reads only SIMMER_API_KEY from the environment. No other secrets are used.
  • No wallet private keys are required or read by this script.
  • Dry-run is the default. The --live flag must be explicitly passed to execute trades.
  • automaton.managed is false in clawhub.json: the skill does NOT auto-execute.

Trade Execution Path

  1. kalshi_divergence.py fetches Kalshi public prices via HTTPS GET (no auth needed)
  2. Finds matching Polymarket markets via SimmerClient.find_markets()
  3. Compares prices, applies thresholds (BUY >8%, SELL >10%)
  4. If --live: calls SimmerClient.trade() with market_id, side, amount, reasoning
  5. If dry-run (default): logs the signal but does NOT execute any trade

Remixable Template: Fork this skill to add new Kalshi series, adjust divergence thresholds, or add position sizing based on gap magnitude.